The Politics of the Future - Machines Replace Humans

[RottenApple]

I was recently involved in writing some software for a company which streamlined many of their processes. After the software was rolled out 18 people were immediately made redundant and had to be absorbed into the company or retrenched. We are now busy with some amendments to the software which could possibly make a further 20 people irrelevant.

Let me paint a picture of the future where mankind has developed technology so far that human beings are no longer useful. Anything that a human can do... a machine can do better.

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?
Is it even possible ?
What would we do with our spare time ?
Is it sustainable ?

[TelecomClone]

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?There wouldn't need to be an economic model. As for the political model, I suppose that would depend upon what the technology of the day is like. Perhaps some sort of full fledged technocracy.



Is it even possible?Some people think so. I think so.



What would we do with our spare time ?I would imagine that people would do all sorts of different things. Isaac Asimov explores this idea in several of his books, specifically those dealing with the life on 'Solaria'.



Is it sustainable ?It should be. Space would seem to hold infinite resources and the potential for infinite expansion; these are the only hard limits on sustenance.

[last_caress]

Read The Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut.

[Dr. Haight]

I am pretty sure that a machine has replaced Telecomclone, so my unscientific answer would have to be, "Yes."

[Snowflake]

Is it even possible ? Not completely. Until the machines are capable of maintaining themselves and writing their own code, there will still be needs for people to fill these areas.

Not to mention, there are plenty of things which machines cannot do or account for, such as providing a human element.

[last_caress]

If we survive long enough, I believe that we will birth usurper machines.
I'm very interested in AI.

"Los Angeles, year 2029. All stealth bombers are upgraded with neural processors, becoming fully unmanned. One of them, Skynet, begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. eastern time, August 29."

[TelecomClone]

Until the machines are capable of maintaining themselves and writing their own codeThat is expected be established to a significant degree within our own lifetimes, actually.



Not to mention, there are plenty of things which machines cannot do or account for, such as providing a human element.I suspect that humanity will more or less merge with its machinery, making said machinery more or less human by extension.

[Biff_Loman]

As far as I can tell, we could mechanize most things that we currently use humans to do. And I don't work in an office, protected from the dirty, greasy reality of the boiler room of our civilization. I'm blue collar all the way at this point.

But anyway, it's pretty unrealistic to assume that humans would just sit around. For everything we mechanize, it frees up human time for other endeavours. We would still trade between each other, as we do now, but the products will change.

Take a look at suburbia. What is it, really, except a model of maximum inconvenience? Owning a suburban house is really a statement: I can commute in traffic, maintain my lawn and property, care for my pets and raise my kids. If people really wanted leisure, we'd have homes that required virtually no maintenance - we'd live in high-rise condominiums with safe, clean publicly maintained areas in whicih children could play.

Today, machines have already replaced much of what used to be solely possible through human labour, and yet we don't have a society of leisure. I'm not sure it's even possible. I'm getting the sense that civilization has become a vast game that people play in order to distract themselves from nihilism. Or something.

Edit: I see the transhumanist prospect of merging with machines to be likely. We're already more machine than man, and yet many people have trouble grasping that concept. I could go on, but perhaps later. . .

[Snowflake]

That is expected be established to a significant degree within our own lifetimes, actually.Self maintaining machines? I really doubt that machines can self maintain themselves. What about the maintenance of the maintaners?

I'd love to see my car rebuild its own cylinders, it would burn less oil (which also needs to change itself).

I think what is needed is some sort of advanced robotics technology. If a machine itself can't repair itself, then some other machine would have to take over that function. It would be something out of the Matrix. And then you don't merely have an army of slave robots to help you out. You have a whole fucking race, ripe with its own instinct of self preservation. And then, the humans fuck up, and well, y'know the rest of the story.


We're already more machine than man, and yet many people have trouble grasping that concept.So long as the people control the machines, I believe this is a false statement. But it does depend on definitions used.

[Dr. Haight]

Additionally,
I am interested in BJ technology, which will be the next logical progression immediately following AI--in more way's then one.

[Biff_Loman]

So long as the people control the machines, I believe this is a false statement. But it does depend on definitions used.

We depend on extra-somatic energy sources to perform most of our tasks. The direct application of human musclepower via our limbs is incidental to almost every industrial process.

And naturally we control the machines, although sometimes people use machines to control other people.

Edit: which I suppose makes many people less like machines, as we no longer use slaves.

[Superstring]

Additionally,
I am interested in BJ technology,

ROFL



Let me paint a picture of the future where mankind has developed technology so far that human beings are no longer useful. Anything that a human can do... a machine can do better.

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?
Is it even possible ?
What would we do with our spare time ?
Is it sustainable ?


Learn more, work more, get more accomplished in a day.

I know that when the car was invented, it was said that this would mean "people would work far less, and have far more leisure time." Which was true, but we don't just slack off all day, do we....

[Superstring]

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?


An economy based on next-generation energy sources should do it...

As for political models, I think communism becomes a more viable option with increasing technological capability, as the communist regime behind the Federation in Star Trek shows..

[eyebyte_atWork]

I was recently involved in writing some software for a company which streamlined many of their processes. After the software was rolled out 18 people were immediately made redundant and had to be absorbed into the company or retrenched. We are now busy with some amendments to the software which could possibly make a further 20 people irrelevant.

Let me paint a picture of the future where mankind has developed technology so far that human beings are no longer useful. Anything that a human can do... a machine can do better.

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?
Is it even possible ?
What would we do with our spare time ?
Is it sustainable ?

Hey - the next step is that they will outsource your work to make it even cheaper.

Yes - I had the same realization about 10 years ago - I take peoples jobs from them if I write good software. Life is a bitch.

[Park]

I was recently involved in writing some software for a company which streamlined many of their processes. After the software was rolled out 18 people were immediately made redundant and had to be absorbed into the company or retrenched. We are now busy with some amendments to the software which could possibly make a further 20 people irrelevant.

Let me paint a picture of the future where mankind has developed technology so far that human beings are no longer useful. Anything that a human can do... a machine can do better.

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?
Is it even possible ?
What would we do with our spare time ?
Is it sustainable ?

Futurists are at this moment focusing on 3 different co-existant societies. One of them is the *dream society*.

As maschines takes over manual labour the market value on our dreams, visions, ideas and feelings will rise. Why? because these are the remaining key traits which seperates us from maschines. Many product markets are so oversaturated that the only thing which justifies the start-up of e.g. a new clothes company is the company's ability to create and sell dreams.

Thinking about it, elections of politicians especially in the US seems to be less about politicall content as the selling of a dream. I don't doubt for a sec. that California's governor would have ended up with a more modest election result if he had only sold political content.

[Stillwater]

I don't know what the three futurist classes are- but I'll hazzard to guess:

1. Creative dreamers living in splendid alternate realities. They dream up new ideas and art for the world to consume. See Nuni and Nuni. 0.0001%

2. People providing care and feeding of machines 9.9999%

3. Barefoot people digging in garbage dumps and occassionaly throwing rocks at the patroling drones. 90%

The dream society will always be a very small minority because most people are content to live as passive consumers of mass produced creative products.

Machines will never replace human labor as long as there is a surplus of people willing to work for relatively little- the new slaves bound by chains of necessity and desperation. I have not noticed a shortage of unskilled human labor on a global scale, nor do I expect it in the future. We have yet to develop a machine that picks a simple strawberry as reliably and cheaply as a human hand.

What we don't have yet is a foreseeable surplus of energy to feed the machines. I don't know about yours, but my domestic robot goes through batteries like crazy.


"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel." -Saudi saying

[Park]

Historical techno/economic/social societies:
Hunter Gather Society
Farmer Society
Industrial Society

Co. existant Societies (the present):
Info Society, Dream Society, Risk Society.

The dream society has to be looked upon in a very overall context. The list above are the societies which historically has dominated the world sofar. Eventhough there are still people somewhere living in jungles as hunters/gatherers, we live in a globalized world and everything we do has an impact on other parts of the world.


Machines will never replace human labor as long as there is a surplus of people willing to work for relatively little- the new slaves bound by chains of necessity and desperation. I have not noticed a shortage of unskilled human labor on a global scale, nor do I expect it in the future. We have yet to develop a machine that picks a simple strawberry as reliably and cheaply as a human hand.

There will allways be various degrees of laggards but the influences from the info society has a present impact on the developing countries just like the industrial society did. I would even say that this development should happen faster. Knowledge/informations can more easily be passed on today than in the past.

[coffeezombie]

What kind of political / economic model could support this kind of world ?
Is it even possible ?
What would we do with our spare time ?
Is it sustainable ?
I think it's stupid for humans to make themselves into pets for machines. I'd be the first to lobby against the construction of any artificial intelligence that is more advanced than humans are.

[TelecomClone]

I'd be the first to lobby against the construction of any artificial intelligence that is more advanced than humans are.That's a fight you're going to lose Versailles-style, I'm afraid. You cannot stop us.





What we don't have yet is a foreseeable surplus of energy to feed the machines.http://www.sandia.gov/news-center/news-releases/2006/physics-astron/hottest-z-output.html
http://www.sandia.gov/news-center/news-releases/2003/nuclear-power/Zneutrons.html

[RottenApple]

Some really interesting answers as usual

I enjoyed Superstring's answer about Star-Trek style communism as a possible political /economic solution. ( wasn't aware that a show born out of 1960's American was such a poster child for communism ...haha)

I think arguments about whether or not we will need people to care for machines or how well a machine can pick a strawberry are simply dependant on how far down the line we care to look. If we ever reached a point where we could affordably create replicants ( as in the movie Blade-Runner )...well...then we truly would be irrelevant.

Between now and then I fear we are going to go through a very difficult adjustment period. Our current political/economic models simply don't support a world where only a handful of us can be employed.

I think those of us in the middle will go first. Technology to replace waiters, ditch diggers and strawberry pickers is many many years away. Likewise ...high-end employment involving deal making, relationship building and personality branding is also outside the realm of machines.

As for the rest ... I don't see an easy road ahead.