economic predictions

[Stillwater]

Alright intuitives, what are your economic predictions for the next six months? Stock markets, oil, gold, real estate, currencies, whatever- it's all on the table. Wild speculation encouraged- don't hold back.

[distraction tactics]

Oil will drop a hair, but be bolstered again for hurricane hype.

Canadian dollar won't exceed US.92.

Real estate will continue to cool, but won't burst.

Zarqawi's death will usher in a new wave of peace and prosperity across Iraq, and Iran will reveal it's 'nuclear enrichment program' was really just a cover for genetically engineering unicorns from gay horses and narwhales.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

We have seen the peak in commodities, and from now on it goes the other way, since speculators are expecting a recession. The housing bubble could pop when the mortgage rates are adjusted later this year.

For the US, there is still a wave of inflation in the pipeline. So brace yourself for a bout of stagflation (27 trillion $ debt? ouch). Employment in the construction sector to be affected first, if it continues entertainment.

With the largest consumer falling away, the recession continues. Oil prices could drop, but they will not stay low for long in any case.

All this could also be a year away, but I think we'll see it unfolding in the coming months.

[ptGatsby]

Long term trends for commodities:

Rising. High volatility.

- Monetary inflation
- Increased risk
- Higher demand from growth countries
- Larger government expenditures in these particular areas
- Oil will increase, with high volatility, into the winter months.


Long term trends for markets (- natural resources);

Slightly negative. Moderate volatility

- Monetary inflation will be directed towards natural resources
- Smart money follows hard assets during inflation growth

General economics.

- More government spending
- More debt
- More consumer spending
- Smaller middle class, larger rich and poor class

[Purple-Silver Fox]

Long term trends are towards recession and depression, energy intensive industries first. China is propping up the world economy by a huge rise in energy production from coal, but once that trend flattens out it's over - any replacements costs time and ever more expensive commodities. And the world population keeps on growing uncontrollably.

Short term predictions are always risky business. Too much randomness. But if the agression versus Iran gets underway, China and Russia will probably speed up their dollar dump.

[Architectonic]

And the world population keeps on growing uncontrollably.


I was under the impression that the world population growth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) is flattening out.....

[Lee]

I am going to go out on a limb and say people will buy and sell stuff.

[Architectonic]

I am going to go out on a limb and say people will buy and sell stuff.

I predict that private property will be outlawed. ;)

[sbw]

I predict that private property will be outlawed. ;)

at which point they'll barter themselves for food.

Scott

[Purple-Silver Fox]

I was under the impression that the world population growth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population) is flattening out.....
It's still growing, at this point. Many nations still favor large families culturally, and many governments see demographic strength as important.
If it was proven as a fact that only x population could be supported, we wouldn't have the means to stop the growth.

Couple that with diminishing resources - including farmland, and fertilizer and pesticide feedstocks, and you get the picture.

[eyebyte_atWork]

I will be broke again in two weeks.

How's that for a prediction?

[Lee]

oh oh oh... I have another prediction. Some people will continue to make dire economic predictions about everthing from trade deficits to population growth, however they will always adjust their prediction to about a year from now, always a year from now.

[Madrigal]

Strategic Forecasting:

www.stratfor.com

[Purple-Silver Fox]

Population growth will continue for at least 40 years, bar catastrophes. That's the whole problem.

Predictions will always be made, it's just too much fun. I'm still waiting for the electricity that's too cheap to meter, and the flying nuclear-powered cars. "Everybody will have a personal portable communication device" is a prediction that has come true.

[Architectonic]

It's still growing, at this point. Many nations still favor large families culturally, and many governments see demographic strength as important.
If it was proven as a fact that only x population could be supported, we wouldn't have the means to stop the growth.

Couple that with diminishing resources - including farmland, and fertilizer and pesticide feedstocks, and you get the picture.

I said population growth was flattening out - the population is no longer growing at the rate it used to.
I agree that much of the economic activity in the world is not necessarily sustainable - but crop yields are still improving and thus there is still capacity for more food production (which only comprises a small part of global gdp).


"Everybody will have a personal portable communication device" is a prediction that has come true.

You mean a mouth and ears? :p

A majority of the people in the world do not have mobile phones...

[last_caress]

Pimps up ho's down.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

I said population growth was flattening out - the population is no longer growing at the rate it used to.
I agree that much of the economic activity in the world is not necessarily sustainable - but crop yields are still improving and thus there is still capacity for more food production (which only comprises a small part of global gdp).
A lot of production improvements are fueled by finite resources (fertilizer, aquifers,..) Mechanisation has increased yields, but also loss of topsoil. As the supply of those diminishes, the population will have to follow.


You mean a mouth and ears? :p

A majority of the people in the world do not have mobile phones...
Well, there are people starving every minute.. The dispersal rate of cellphones as it is now was still very unlikely in the early 80's.

[joft]

Pimps up ho's down.
it's still hard out here... :joft: