Big asteroid coming in 2029

[ApeTheDog]

From slashdot. Yesterday, they discovered an asteroid of 420 meters with a torino rating of 4, which means there's a 1 out of 62 change of it hitting earth.

Here's the article:
http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/12/24/1518210&tid=160

What's the impact of this on our planet? Can we avoid this and should we? I'm hoping some of the more studious INTP's on this board will know more about this. I'm definately excited about this.

[melancholeric]

Looking forward to it while singing tool: Ænema.
"Some say the end is near
Some say we'll see armageddon soon
I certainly hope we will
I sure could use a vacation from this.. "

[Aryan]

Hey wait a minute!
Didnt nostradamus predict that ?

[jittus rye]

Too bad it wasn't of appocolyptic size.

[Claverhouse]

If in 24 years all life on earth has ceased through the random effects of 'Homeland Security', and the asteroid hits the planet, will the sound be heard if no-one can hear it ?

Still, according to Pravda, meteorite-strikes are increasing. Deliberately avoiding striking an alarmist note, one scientist says:


Doctor Valeri Rudakov from the Institute of Earth's Physics believes that one should not underestimate the meteor danger. "Meteorites might cause considerable damage to our civilization. They can destroy enterprises, level electric power stations, not to mention nuclear power plants. In addition to it, meteorites can cause tremendous earthquakes and volcano eruptions," the scientist said.
Bad enough if merely through the random accidence of nature, yet other possibilities make it worse:


Experts do not know why incidents with meteorites have become so frequent nowadays. One of the versions says that someone in deep black space deliberately bombards the Earth with meteorites.

Meteor Showers (http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/94/378/14754_asteroid.html)


If so, those beings may be offended by some of our antics: in the same issue there's a report on the rehabilation of Koba's memory:


The whole Russia, as well as the republics of the former Soviet Union, marked the 125th anniversary of Joseph Stalin's birthday yesterday.
Since this included listening to:

About 30 elderly communists were chanting slogans for about an hour. when the exCCCP is as a whole rather chilly,

Ishim is the only town in the Tyumen region of Russia, where the great Soviet leader is immortalized in a monument. However, only 40 people, presumably pensioners, came to lay carnations to Stalin's bust yesterday. Tamara Sazhina, the chairwoman of the local public organization "Stalin" said that the turnout was so low because of severe frost: it was 30 degrees below zero Centigrade in the town yesterday.,
the beings in outer space watching this funfest for a ghoulish old serial-killer may have a low opinion of human intelligence.

Uncle Joe (http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/90/363/14747_stalin.html)



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[joft]

I like pravda.ru, it's funnier than any american tabloids.

So we're all going to die in 24 years? Oh man, I bet I die a virgin anyway

[jimkopelli]

When I read the article, it was only rated as a 2, and was a 1/300 chance... I wonder if my article was before or after yours?

(thinks)
Probably after... or they would have mentioned that the threat had gone down...

Still... if we can't come up with a solution in 23 years, maybe we need smacked...

[ApeTheDog]

Yeah, the story was posted as a 1/233 chance first, and as scientists try to calculate the trajectory, they will eventually be able to narrow it down to hit or miss. The latest calculations already show a 1/45 chance of it hitting so...

http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/12/25/2147200&tid=160&tid=14

I don't quite like where this is heading. It could however be a great opportunity to unite the world.

420 meters wouldn't kill the human race, but who knows what bad things it could do. It might do something to the earths trajectory or cause a huge tidal wave.

[Claverhouse]

It could however be a great opportunity to unite the world.
To do what exactly ?



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[melancholeric]

Seen the movie "Armageddon"?

[Division56]

To do what exactly ?



Claverhouse :ph34r:
Die.

[heeroyuy]

420 meters wouldn't kill the human race, but who knows what bad things it could do. It might do something to the earths trajectory or cause a huge tidal wave.

Tidal waves, sure, change our trajectory? I highly doubt this, if it was dense enough to do that it would be a mass extinction event, and we'd be part of the event :)

Oh well, maybe in 24 years my parents (living in midwest) will have beachfront property heh.

[ApeTheDog]

Down to a 1 in 37 chance of it hitting earth now.

About what we could possibly do? Well, this is going to happen in 2029. That's still a long time away. A small deviation in it's course now could knock it way past earth. I'm pretty certain that if this thing is set for a certain impact on earth, every nation on the planet will work together to try and stop it. Here's what I think could happen:

1) World summit.
2) Every nation in the world helps to build a big rocket that'll knock this thing off course
3) We launch it, it's a major succes, everybody on the planet feels proud.
4) In the aftermath of this thing, a global organ is created to deal with future threats to our planet.
5) Every country in the world grows closer together because of this, and more and more decisions are made on a global scale.
6) Unified government, and world peace (eventually)

[Edmond Zedo]

Here's what I think could happen:
Easy.

[Sam172]

Down to a 1 in 37 chance of it hitting earth now.

About what we could possibly do? Well, this is going to happen in 2029. That's still a long time away. A small deviation in it's course now could knock it way past earth. I'm pretty certain that if this thing is set for a certain impact on earth, every nation on the planet will work together to try and stop it. Here's what I think could happen:

1) World summit.
2) Every nation in the world helps to build a big rocket that'll knock this thing off course
3) We launch it, it's a major succes, everybody on the planet feels proud.
4) In the aftermath of this thing, a global organ is created to deal with future threats to our planet.
5) Every country in the world grows closer together because of this, and more and more decisions are made on a global scale.
6) Unified government, and world peace (eventually)
Alternatively, the Americans and Russians kep arguing about who's flag should go where on the rocket, and end up starting a pre-apocalypse war with each other. A group like Aleph manage to hijack the attempt to divert/destroy the meteor, turning it instead into a tool with which the try to make everyone repent or see the error of their ways (okay, stereotyping here....but you get the point)

[melancholeric]

That seems a bit more likely scenario.

[ApeTheDog]

Remind me not to sponsor any of you guys candidacies for NASA.

[Robespierre]

Hooray! Finally the next big scare! Now everyone, you all realize that we must centralize ALL remaining power to one government, which will rule over the entire world and nullify all existing property rights. Otherwise, there is no way the human race will survive!

[Sam172]

Seen the movie "Armageddon"?
I prefer "Deep Impact" :)

[Dman]

Hooray! Finally the next big scare! Now everyone, you all realize that we must centralize ALL remaining power to one government, which will rule over the entire world and nullify all existing property rights. Otherwise, there is no way the human race will survive!

I prefer to argue with Robespierre, ‘cause it’s much more invigorating, but I may have to go with him on this one. It would be a power struggle – who’s going to provide funding for this desperate, necessary mission? Who gets credit? Let’s all work together and scratch each other’s backs! Oh, we need to raise taxes to be able to pay for this! And you will pay, won’t you, because otherwise we will all die! Might have to sacrifice some civil liberties too, it’s for our own good…

BTW – the “cause” for all the asteroid/meteorite near misses relatively recently wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that we only recently have had instruments that are able to DETECT them now, would it?

[Dman]

As for what we could do to stop it – the first thing that comes to mind is nukes, right? Does anyone know how nukes behave in the absence of air? I’m not trying to make a point, I really don’t know. I would assume they would not be quite as powerful. I would think that even our largest nukes would have a difficult time blasting a space rock significantly off course, even if they performed well in space.

The idea of blasting the rock itself to pieces also may not work; scientists are still trying to determine how they are composed, they think that many asteroids are loosely held together like a ball of sand, meaning they would pretty much absorb an explosion from a nuke.

So there is only one sure way to cope:

“I’m normally not a praying man, but if you’re up there, please save me Superman!”

[joft]

Let's just hope we still have oil rig workers in 2029

[Robespierre]

As for what we could do to stop it – the first thing that comes to mind is nukes, right? Does anyone know how nukes behave in the absence of air? I’m not trying to make a point, I really don’t know. I would assume they would not be quite as powerful. I would think that even our largest nukes would have a difficult time blasting a space rock significantly off course, even if they performed well in space.

Nukes work just fine in outer-space. The explosion is a result of splitting atoms(in a fission bomb), fueled entirely by the compenents of the bomb, no air is required or desired.

As for the change in path, F = ma, that is force = mass x acceleration. So if you know what the mass and velocity of the asteroid is, and what acceleration would result from a nuclear detonation, you could figure it all out.

[Dman]

Nukes work just fine in outer-space. The explosion is a result of splitting atoms(in a fission bomb), fueled entirely by the compenents of the bomb, no air is required or desired.

As for the change in path, F = ma, that is force = mass x acceleration. So if you know what the mass and velocity of the asteroid is, and what acceleration would result from a nuclear detonation, you could figure it all out.

Ok, but what of the density of the mass? If it were very loosely held together, it would require a much different force of impact than if it were super-dense? Not to mention the composition of materials in it. We would have to assume worst case scenario & throw everything at it, but it would be impossible to predict the outcome. I don't think it's unlikely to say that the composition/density could be such that the nukes would simply blow it into a larger, looser packed "cloud" of debris, that would still end up impacting the planet catastrophically.

[Robespierre]

Ok, but what of the density of the mass? If it were very loosely held together, it would require a much different force of impact than if it were super-dense?

That would all be covered by the calculation of the acceleration imparted by the blast. It certainly wouldn't be easy to calculate, and density vs surface area and relative structural stability of the asteroid would all be important factors.

If the amount of acceleration imparted by the blast was greater than the structural stength perpendicular to the direction of acceleration, the asteroid would break up.


Not to mention the composition of materials in it. We would have to assume worst case scenario & throw everything at it, but it would be impossible to predict the outcome. I don't think it's unlikely to say that the composition/density could be such that the nukes would simply blow it into a larger, looser packed "cloud" of debris, that would still end up impacting the planet catastrophically.

One of the more logical approaches, depending on the composition of the 'roid, is to send some sort of engine to the 'roid. It would attach itself, and then take chunks off of the 'roid and accelerate them away, causing the 'roid to change directions.

[Dman]

One of the more logical approaches, depending on the composition of the 'roid, is to send some sort of engine to the 'roid. It would attach itself, and then take chunks off of the 'roid and accelerate them away, causing the 'roid to change directions.

In addition to assuming it has the proper composition to do that, it also assumes that it is discovered in time to pull it off. Many of these smaller asteroids (but large enough to cause catastrophic consequences) are only discovered a few weeks before they fly by. And then it takes a while to discover its exact trajectory and how likely it will be that it hits us. So there would have to be a contingency plan in the event that we don't have time to carry out complicated schemes.

Me, I'm digging a hole in my backyard.

[joft]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

apparently it has fallen to 1 on the torino scale, the impact probability now 1 in 26,000

[melancholeric]

Oh shit.
For a moment I thought there was hope. And now it's ruined.

[Edmond Zedo]

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

apparently it has fallen to 1 on the torino scale, the impact probability now 1 in 26,000
Never tell me the odds! Chewy, take the professor in back and plug him in to the hyperdrive.