View Full Version : Make your predictions for Sunday (Ron Paul!)
Sunday is the Ron Paul tea party (http://www.teaparty07.com/) donation day. It's been mentioned in other threads, but it's time to place your bets! How much will be raised in 24 hours on Sunday?
Only rule: No lame estimate cop outs like "between 4 and 6 million" this is for real guesses only! If you give a range then for the purposes of this thread you will be given the value in your range which falls furthest from the real number (if you say 4-6m and it's 7m then you were 3m short). So guess a specific number.
For those who don't know (where have you been?) Ron Paul raised over 4 million dollars in 24 hours on November 5th, this event already has more pledges than the last but will we take it way over the top again? Will peoples donation limits be maxed, or will they just donate under different names? How many people who didn't sign up will donate a few bucks? How many will go over their $100 pledge? Who knows... so GUESS :)
Winner gets this image of a trophy:
Xenolith
15 Dec 2007, 04:28 AM
6 million dollars.
Ellipsis
15 Dec 2007, 06:58 AM
My guess: $5,723,412.65
I am so tempted to go "The Price is Right" on you....
But I won't....alright lets come up with a bullshit formula
About 18,000 people signed up last time donors where at about 39,000
so 2.1 donors (rounded down) per subscriber....but this time I will say due to attention this has recieved and accounting for the veiws on the site at this point it was a similar stage last time with less subscribers...it can many things but I am generally guessing it will mean a small ratio but not too much...Thus my guess is the ratio will be at about 1.3 so....31,000x1.3=40,030 donors
31,000 are $100 dollars plus the other 9000 are all over the map....but my guess is that 75% are donating a average of $25 bucks the other 25% is in with the $100+ people....10% of people will donate an average of $300 dollars =$1 million...The 40% will donate an avarage of $150=2,000,000....the remaining 50% will donate $100 bucks...$1.5 million
Semi-total= $4.5 million is what the total would be if we it was not so hyped....now additional hype throughout the day will push supporters to raise the total about 25%....
Total =$5,625,000
If this fallows the same ratio as November 5th though...which might be right...very easily the total could push 8 million....
Now there is the added factor of people stalking up money and not donating....which has been seen over the last few weeks....which could mean that $8 million is a achievable total...yet I don't know...people have been sucked very dry so I am staying will my estimate of $5,625,000
hmmm that came out close to rek's total....ah I might as well increase it to $5,723,412.66 because of positive factors I have not accounted for...
By guess is thus:$5,723,412.66
On Ron Paul Forums poll the smart money is on about 6 million....but most have hyped it up to $10 million plus...come on that will not happen...
ApeTheDog
15 Dec 2007, 07:29 AM
$5,723,412.67
Ellipsis
15 Dec 2007, 07:43 AM
$5,723,412.67
How cruel but expected.....now I am cornered..
garak
15 Dec 2007, 07:49 AM
$8m
Limey
15 Dec 2007, 08:02 AM
I get mixed up between Ron Paul and Ron Jeremy - which is that one that will willingly fuck members of the public up the ass again?
nittanylion302
15 Dec 2007, 09:16 AM
Steelers Win 23-7
uhh. Oh, and that famous internet politician guy makes more of a ruckus.
Maybe we should allow adjustment of guesses up until the beginning of the 24 hours? So that people don't "price is right" us? Clearly the order in which we place the guess shouldn't matter... so I'm going to say as long as it's BEFORE sunday starts (eastern time) you can adjust your guess...
Right now i'd win with any total under my original guess, though I have to admit it could be a low guess.. I try to have low expectations so I end up pleasantly surprised, not the other way around. I'll sleep on it and maybe adjust it a little higher. I would never guess 10m, but 8m is possible?
Right now if I had to bet real money I'd almost be tempted to say the 8m bet by garak could win; we'd need to see anything more than 6,861,706.33 if my math is correct (its 2:30 am so probably not). Only person really screwed with these guesses is ellipsis :P
edit- I really should have done something like keep the votes private until the day comes, knowing that INTPs would just try to game the system heh... this isn't price is right! you screw yourself out of covering a bigger range by guessing 1 cent over people because it's who's closest NOT who is closest without going over ><
Ellipsis
16 Dec 2007, 05:01 AM
I am keeping my guess the same.....
Right now donations are at about 5.6k per minute according to:
http://paulcash.slact.net/?save_the_republic=true
we're at 3.55m with a lot of time to go :D
Zephyrus055
16 Dec 2007, 09:39 PM
$6,660,006.66
trapstar
16 Dec 2007, 09:42 PM
32 455 765
Lethal Sage
17 Dec 2007, 05:41 PM
Xenolith wins, YAY!
inspectorgadget
17 Dec 2007, 08:26 PM
I would have guessed 7 million if i'd seen this thread in time.
Can you believe the (lack of) coverage we're getting by the MSM? I thought for sure they'd run this through the cycle all day.
But I see bullshit about Lieberman's endorsement 4:1
Ellipsis
17 Dec 2007, 09:49 PM
I would have guessed 7 million if i'd seen this thread in time.
Can you believe the (lack of) coverage we're getting by the MSM? I thought for sure they'd run this through the cycle all day.
But I see bullshit about Lieberman's endorsement 4:1
....hmmm...and media endorsements...I found that like...wow...they come out and say they are siding with a candidate...
But there is probably going to be a bit more later...right now thing I think are a bit fresh...
I haven't seen anything on the news yet, but my dad just walked in and said "You're guy is doing good, he just broke his own record." I pointed out he broke EVERYONES record. His response was "if only he had a reasonable stance on foreign policy maybe he could win." So of course I pointed out his foreign policy stance is the traditional republican stance, the same stance Bush held in 2000 about no nation building and staying out of other peoples business. He just made a weird noise and walked away haha.
Old people just don't get it.
The email from Ron I got says $6.04 million; xenolith wins!
Here's your awesome prize:
Ellipsis
17 Dec 2007, 10:29 PM
I haven't seen anything on the news yet, but my dad just walked in and said "You're guy is doing good, he just broke his own record." I pointed out he broke EVERYONES record. His response was "if only he had a reasonable stance on foreign policy maybe he could win." So of course I pointed out his foreign policy stance is the traditional republican stance, the same stance Bush held in 2000 about no nation building and staying out of other peoples business. He just made a weird noise and walked away haha.
Old people just don't get it.
The email from Ron I got says $6.04 million; xenolith wins!
Here's your awesome prize:
Show him this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JX-FiXTgKFo
I am shocked to hear this from Bush's mouth....
As for Xenolith winning....hopefully he placed some bets online as well....
Xenolith
14 Mar 2008, 05:55 PM
I just found out that I won today. Thanks for the trophy rek.
Throttled
25 Mar 2008, 12:41 AM
I get mixed up between Ron Paul and Ron Jeremy - which is that one that will willingly fuck members of the public up the ass again?
They're the same person. So both I guess?
Works
25 Mar 2008, 01:11 AM
I get mixed up between Ron Paul and Ron Jeremy - which is that one that will willingly fuck members of the public up the ass again?
They're the same person. So both I guess?
Ron Paul leaves the assblasting to the states.
AkuManiMani
25 Mar 2008, 01:19 AM
Ron Paul leaves the assblasting to the states.
As it should be...as it should be...
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