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PsiKik
12 Oct 2005, 11:24 AM
Is the 'bird flu' scare just another scare?

Could the bad handling of the Katrina disaster be fueling the panic?

There are so many media articles now about it now, mostly essentialy the same - dire warnings about the millions that are sure to die.

There are a few like this one that offer a different perspective - http://www.americandaily.com/article/9657
- that point out conditions are very different to the 1918 pandemic.



Whereas today government would simply call upon certain drug companies to produce more of a certain vaccine or drug (GlaxoSmithKline produces an in-demand vaccine for bird flu), antiviral drugs didn’t exist in 1918. Public health officials were left to rely upon what were then modern standards. Stanford University maintains some brief, fine writings on the subject online; one notes that “[while] most of the measures were solidly grounded in the current scientific concepts, they could also be traced back to Medieval and even Classical times of plague and pestilence. The public health authorities in both the United States and Europe took up fundamental measures to control epidemics that dated back to Medieval times of the Bubonic Plague.” In other words, their modern concepts were rooted in the 1350s.

The point is that medical science in 2005 is decidedly rooted in 2005 (and beyond, it seems sometimes). More North Koreans will die from regime-fueled starvation on Tuesday than have died, worldwide, from bird flu in the last 2˝ years, or that will ever die from it in the United States.

PenguinHunter
12 Oct 2005, 11:41 AM
"that will ever die from it in the United States."

That's quite a bold prediction, forever being a long time and all. As to the actual topic I don't know a lot about it and general ignore the news headlines containing "bird flu." Seems overblown and silly to me but maybe I just haven't read enough of these news articles. . .

PsiKik
12 Oct 2005, 11:54 AM
I think the main differences between the 1918 pandemic and a potential bird-flu pandemic today is that many people
died of secondary infections in the 1918 version, like pneumonia, which are treatable today and that today we have anti-viral drugs.

The point of the article is that the disease is most likely to affect third world countries.
Are there any INTPs here with suitable medical knowledge to comment on this?

If you use google news to search for <bird flu> you will see there are now hundreds of articles appearing in the world press, mostly the same - mentioning the horror stats of 'tens of millions dead'.

Bugeater
12 Oct 2005, 11:56 AM
Well, the major problem will arise if/when this bird flu is able to be transmitted from person to person rather than just bird to human. The strain they're talking about is resistant to all our drugs, if I'm not mistaken...so they're scrambling to find something that'll work against it in the meantime, while trying to isolate the carriers and infected people.

ETA: I've been reading up on it some more and I'm not sure about it being resistant. Though, the articles do state that we don't have the needed supplies of vaccines and drugs on hand for when it does spread. Once it mutates to being able to spread from person to person, it could easily span the globe. All it takes is one infected person on an airplane, then all those people go home, to work, etc. and spread it to more people. I can see why they'd be concerned.

kuranes
12 Oct 2005, 12:29 PM
I can't recall the name now, but I mentioned in a post a couple months ago the name of the drug ( used as a vaccine/preventative, as I recall, vs. a "cure" ) that is "in demand" as Psikik says. Until the drug ( or an alternative to it ) becomes widely available, I suppose conditions exist for a nasty scenario when it finally breaks, if ever. So far I think it's less than 100 humans dead, all poultry workers in the far east.

eyebyte_atWork
12 Oct 2005, 12:35 PM
I can't recall the name now, but I mentioned in a post a couple months ago the name of the drug ( used as a vaccine/preventative, as I recall, vs. a "cure" ) that is "in demand" as Psikik says. Until the drug ( or an alternative to it ) becomes widely available, I suppose conditions exist for a nasty scenario when it finally breaks, if ever. So far I think it's less than 100 humans dead, all poultry workers in the far east.


Something smells fishy.