View Full Version : Next asteroid threat
http://physorg.com/news11340.html
The rock, 2004 VD17, is about 500 metres (yards) long and has a mass of nearly a billion tonnes, which -- if it were to impact -- would deliver 10,000 megatonnes of energy, equivalent to all the world's nuclear weapons.
Spotted on November 27 2004, VD 17 was swiftly identified as rock that potentially crossed Earth's orbit, with a 1 in 3,000 risk of collision on May 4 2102.
Further observations and calculations have prompted the risk on that day to be upgraded to "a bit less than 1 in 1,000," said NASA Near-Earth Object (NEO) expert David Morrison in an emailed circular.
"The risk of an impact within the next century (is) higher than that of any other known asteroid," he said, stressing however that the likelihood of a hit was small.
interesting, would anyone care, considering it's 2102?
Snowflake
2 Mar 2006, 08:01 PM
Only if I will still be alive then, and although it's possible, I don't foresee myself wanting to live for the next 98 years unless I find something really interesting to keep me busy.
BTW this reminds me to finish my stats hw
Madrigal
2 Mar 2006, 08:01 PM
http://physorg.com/news11340.html
interesting, would anyone care, considering it's 2102?
I would.
<---- commie
EDIT: Ahaha, it's pointing to Lee.
Stillwater
2 Mar 2006, 08:34 PM
We're all gonna die, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!. Asteroid or not, tis true, just a matter of timing. What's scarier- dying alone or dying all together? Vaporized by a space rock or slow fade out in a nursing home?
I first read that as 2012, that got me thinking. Then I see it's 2102. That changes things quite a bit- Meh, I'm already long gone.
2012 scenario is more fun to play with. I think the biggest problem would be the extreme human reactions beforehand. A sure thing would probably be kept a secret as long as possible.
I say we send Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck, and Aerosmith to intercept it right now.
Snowflake
2 Mar 2006, 08:38 PM
We're all gonna die, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!. Asteroid or not, tis true, just a matter of timing. What's scarier- dying alone or dying all together?
Dying together has the advantage of mass orgies (among other things).
My guess is mass chaos would ensue, and nobody would respect authorities anymore, as there really would be no need to. It'll all be over tomorrow.
Stillwater
2 Mar 2006, 08:53 PM
I say we send Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck, and Aerosmith to intercept it right now.
I thought they all died in 1998- that was a true story, right? All heros in my book.
What if we knew that the chances of it hitting were absolute, and it was just simply too big to do anything about it? Would we keep on having our petty arguments and wars and living our mundane working lives, knowing that the world was going to be destroyed shortly after our deaths?
Nemesis
2 Mar 2006, 09:02 PM
Knowing humans, we wouldn't accept it as inevitable. We would keep working till our dying days to find a way to survive and I think that is glorious and amazing. It's what keeps my faith in the human race.
I can imagine all sorts of fights over the rich building fallout shelters and so on. my faith in humanity is that we'll fight each other and neither will survive
Sackanaka
2 Mar 2006, 09:07 PM
I think there'd be a whole lotta killing and fucking and battles of religion while a struggling group of hopeful yuks would argue whether they should save the world or themselves.
What if we knew that the chances of it hitting were absolute, and it was just simply too big to do anything about it? Would we keep on having our petty arguments and wars and living our mundane working lives, knowing that the world was going to be destroyed shortly after our deaths?
That's a good question.
I'd say the answer is yes. It's all we have.
Stillwater
2 Mar 2006, 09:18 PM
I think there'd be a whole lotta killing and fucking and battles of religion while a struggling group of hopeful yuks would argue whether they should save the world or themselves.
That sounds like today. I must have missed the memo.
Nemesis
2 Mar 2006, 09:25 PM
You guys so underestimate the power of human potential. Do you really think we would just roll over and die?
do you really think there's nothing in the universe that we couldn't stop from killing us with 1 century of warning?
Nemesis
2 Mar 2006, 09:36 PM
I do. But an asteroid thats basically a couple football fields across? come on.
Crazy
2 Mar 2006, 09:40 PM
I'm sure we could figure something out in the next 90 years. However, everyone alive today is likely to already be dead by the time that thing *might* hit. Why worry so much.
We won't want to. Bickering with each other is all we know. It would require a global effort to do and regardless of whether we could stop it or not, people just wouldn't find a way to get over their differences long enough to stop the asteroid.
coffeezombie
2 Mar 2006, 10:33 PM
I do. But an asteroid thats basically a couple football fields across? come on.
It's weightless in space. It would be easy to nudge it away from the path of Earth if we make sure to plan enough ahead of time to do it.
It's weightless in space. It would be easy to nudge it away from the path of Earth if we make sure to plan enough ahead of time to do it.
Except everything is weightless in space including the nudger.
That's like saying we could move the sun out of it's orbit with a bullet. I think the physics is slightly more complicated than you are having us believe.
ApeTheDog
2 Mar 2006, 11:51 PM
Lots of people would start praying, lots more people would start spending their money and the economy would collapse - as nobody would want to work anymore.
Personally, I would go out into the streets and wreak havoc, as there would be no consequences and no use postponing. I would indulge myself in every way and throw bricks through windows, quite naturally living as it it were my last day on earth. It would probably actually be a lot of fun.
I don't think we'd be kept out of the blue in case of a sure hit, because right now I don't think we have the possibility to predict sure hits, and any time there has been report of an asteroid that was close to hitting us - before the calculations had been completed to ensure whether or not it would hit us or not - we've known about it. Why would it be different in case of a sure thing?
inertia
How much and can we create it?
edit add: And how many groups out there are going to try and stop it?
i mean it will have a lot of it
ptGatsby
3 Mar 2006, 12:11 AM
I thought this might be of interest.
Assuming an intercept at the range of the moon, roughly... and assuming the worst case scenario...
And assuming I remember my HS math properly, the largest amount of movement required to push it off course (ignoring gravity) is 0.0166 degrees.
I'd be really curious on the required path change to avoid it being pulled onto the planet... Anyone here a physicist?
I thought this might be of interest.
Assuming an intercept at the range of the moon, roughly... and assuming the worst case scenario...
And assuming I remember my HS math properly, the largest amount of movement required to push it off course (ignoring gravity) is 0.0166 degrees.
I'd be really curious on the required path change to avoid it being pulled onto the planet... Anyone here a physicist?
Yeah, gravity is a bitch.
ptGatsby
3 Mar 2006, 12:19 AM
Nevermind, already been done;
Safe Distance Calcs (http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2004VD17;statpts;gif)
Well there is one coming around 2036
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20060201-9999-lz1c01nasa.html
imfrellinggay
3 Mar 2006, 03:32 AM
Well there is one coming around 2036
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20060201-9999-lz1c01nasa.html
Oh god! Oh god! Oh god! Oh god! Oh god!
Quick! I must have sex with every attractive man in the world before 2036!
*humps his way to the top*
Oh crap! They invented that huge nuclear warhead that destroyed the asteroid! Crap!
*forgets A LOT of phone numbers*
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