The Oil's running out

[Claverhouse]

Life After The Oil Crash (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)



Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global “Peak Oil.”



Anytime George W. Bush, his energy advisor, Dick Cheney, and the Saudis are in complete agreement with Michael Moore and a high ranking environmentalist, it's safe to say the sh_t has hit the fan.


Well, there you go.



Claverhouse :ph34r:


[ Also:
The level of military intervention necessary to secure the quantity of oil we need will require a large-scale reinstitution of the military draft.

To this end, the Pentagon has already posted a notice on its website asking for "men and women in the community who might be willing to serve as members of a local draft board." A process the military calls "Draft-Creep" is already underway. Several proposals to reinstate the draft are currently circulating in Congress. In addition, the Director of the Selective Service has proposed the draft be expanded to include all men and women ages18-34.

Why not get in first by volunteering to serve on a draft board, rather than get drafted ? Unless you long to see the world ].

[int]

Funny. In the debates last week the prez said a draft wouldn't happen on his watch. Seemed pretty clear. :ph34r:

This bill is probably what started the hoopla.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20041006/pl_afp/us_iraq_draft_politics_041006075233

[Claverhouse]

It's not a draft for Iraq or Afghanistan the article means: more one for all the other places that will have oil until they're liberated.

Anyway, didn't his daddy promise no more taxes ?



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[Claverhouse]

Yeah. :rofl: Another funny thing is that the oil they get will, eventually, all be hoarded to the very last drop to keep their tanks rolling.

Civil unrest is an awful thing.



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[int]

It's not a draft for Iraq or Afghanistan the article means: more one for all the other places that will have oil until they're liberated.

Anyway, didn't his daddy promise no more taxes ?



Claverhouse :ph34r:

I'm aware of what his father said but you're deterring from the draft issue. Did you read the article I posted?

And I'm not supporting W, but the whole draft thing looks like an ugly result of a bill written by an over-zealous democrat.

[crule81]

We don't need a draft.

I'm sure everybody here will love this completely reactionary idea:

Historian Niall Ferguson has suggested that the prison population in the US be tapped for soldiers. In exchange for reduced sentences, a convict could "volunteer" for military service. It does sound a bit absurd and archaic at first but I think it has a little validity to it. I don't know the numbers, but I think the US could get several hundred thousand soldiers through these means.

It probably wouldn't work too well in reality, but theoretically, I believe it's an interesting idea.

[Division56]

Ugh, most of the country's prison population is there because of unjust laws and systems. That would be insult to injury.

[Claverhouse]

Dunno, we don't follow American internal politics any more deeply than you follow Chinese or Peruvian ditto. Yes, I read it: and immediately after received one of good Lawyer Steele's unprejudiced screeds 'Left is Right and Right is Wrong which coincidentally had within:


In fact, what do your own people matter? Can you believe what you hear from these guys? Both thought Iraq needed invading and both plan to keep killing Iraqi civilians all next year! Both plan to keep building the Twin Towers - no, not the ones taken out in New York City - the Twin Towering Deficits: fiscal and foreign spending. Believe me, the destruction, even death, resulting when those Twin Towers fall will far exceed what happened on 9/11. And, while neither will admit it, the draft is coming. It has to, because Bush singlehandedly has destroyed both the National Guard and the military reservist system. Nobody is going to hang around for either after being shanghaied as they have been this past year. That means my son the draftee is going to be sent to some Arab hellhole and likely come home in a body bag.


Still, let's face it: if America wants to keep it's power, let alone it's ( or anybody else's ) oil, she's gonna need a whole lot more troops. The Second Saddamite War was/is remarkably cheap. Only a 1000 odd killed so far. God knows how many people Russia alone has lost in the Chechen War-thing. If there's not enough volunteers...

Anyway, your Congress, Conscript Fathers ?, can't conscript the rest of us, so really the matter's academic: particularly as I've got to sleep sometime ( it's nearly 3am here ). G'night.



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[crule81]

Ugh, most of the country's prison population is there because of unjust laws and systems. That would be insult to injury.

If you're talking about drug possession laws, I completely agree.

[HairlessBluetick]

Speaking of oil running out, did anyone else read that great article about switching from fossil fuels by Kurt Vonnegut called "Cold Turkey"? I think I have the link around here somewhere if anyone is interested...

[Hunter]

Instituting the draft would not only be political suicide, but rather useless considering it takes at least 2 years tog et the machine actually running...or so I hear. 193 days to present the first person for training according to some guy,

[Groty]

We don't need a draft.

I'm sure everybody here will love this completely reactionary idea:

Historian Niall Ferguson has suggested that the prison population in the US be tapped for soldiers. In exchange for reduced sentences, a convict could "volunteer" for military service. It does sound a bit absurd and archaic at first but I think it has a little validity to it. I don't know the numbers, but I think the US could get several hundred thousand soldiers through these means.

It probably wouldn't work too well in reality, but theoretically, I believe it's an interesting idea.

It does make sense, sorta. Two birds with 1 stone and all.

But, do we really wanna teach armed robbers proficient with a .45 how to use a grenade launcher?

Can't really get much more than GI's out of that anyway. Bodies.

[Groty]

Speaking of oil running out, did anyone else read that great article about switching from fossil fuels by Kurt Vonnegut called "Cold Turkey"? I think I have the link around here somewhere if anyone is interested...

Post it, I enjoy reading Vonnegut...

Reminds me, now I'm gonna change my sig.

[HairlessBluetick]

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/cold_turkey/ Here you go.

[int]

In fact, what do your own people matter? Can you believe what you hear from these guys? Both thought Iraq needed invading and both plan to keep killing Iraqi civilians all next year! Both plan to keep building the Twin Towers - no, not the ones taken out in New York City - the Twin Towering Deficits: fiscal and foreign spending. Believe me, the destruction, even death, resulting when those Twin Towers fall will far exceed what happened on 9/11. And, while neither will admit it, the draft is coming. It has to, because Bush singlehandedly has destroyed both the National Guard and the military reservist system. Nobody is going to hang around for either after being shanghaied as they have been this past year. That means my son the draftee is going to be sent to some Arab hellhole and likely come home in a body bag.

Claver, you know that looks like an emotional rant based on loose facts - and I'm actually surprised someone of your esteem used it here.

But you are right in one sense - for the neo-con movement to grow it will need to put American troops everywhere. BUT, for that to be possible (at this point) they will need a draft, but Americans aren't buying the draft (at this pont), so it's chances of progressing are diminishing. Thankfully.

They'll need to warp us with something else, which I'm sure they'll come up with. Hell, if we bought Iraq we'll probably buy just about anything. :rolleyes:

[Avengardh]

Some oil-dudes-engineers were giving a presentation about oil at the School of Mines (CO) when I attended one of their summer programs back in Junior year. I wanted to ask what they would do once the oil ran out and what they would do to fix such things, but decided against it...the presentation was boring in itself.

I think the gov. already has the means...they just need the economical support.

[Johnny]

Oil is the latest excuse for the human race's fascination and toying-around with empire. We all just have to have a world that conforms to system. When the oil's gone, it will inevitably be something else. :lol:

[Claverhouse]

I neglected to continue since my purpose was more about the run-down of the oil supply rather than the less important question of a draft in the USA, but this came up ( and ties in with the thread posted about Bush testing all for mental illness; himself no doubt being the first. 'I'd never ask anyone to do what I wasn't prepared to do myself' etc. etc. ).


Sharon Shea-Keneally, principal of Mount Anthony Union High School in Bennington, Vermont, was shocked when she received a letter in May from military recruiters demanding a list of all her students, including names, addresses, and phone numbers. The school invites recruiters to participate in career days and job fairs, but like most school districts, it keeps student information strictly confidential. "We don't give out a list of names of our kids to anybody," says Shea-Keneally, "not to colleges, churches, employers -- nobody."

But when Shea-Keneally insisted on an explanation, she was in for an even bigger surprise: The recruiters cited the No Child Left Behind Act, President Bush's sweeping new education law passed earlier this year. There, buried deep within the law's 670 pages, is a provision requiring public secondary schools to provide military recruiters not only with access to facilities, but also with contact information for every student -- or face a cutoff of all federal aid.

Oh... so that's what No Child Left Behind means. Makes sense now.

http://adreampuppet.blogspot.com/2004/10/military-recruiters-demand-names-of.htm



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[cryptique]

I don't favor a draft, especially to prolong the Iraq Mistake.

However, I do believe we'd be better off as a nation if we required two years of military service for ALL citizens, much as many other countries do.

Now, understand that I'm a pretty wacked-out left-wing nutjob, so all my crazy ideas are to be taken with a grain of salt ... but I really believe I'd be a better person today if I'd undergone a couple years of military discipline when I was younger. I also think the benefit to the country would be enormous (not just from me being less of a fuck-up, but from the broader application of the concept).

I'm not a militaristic person by any means ... I just think this is a good idea.

I'm anticipating some strong disagreement on this one, so let it fly.

Oh, and don't ignore the oil-is-running-out problem. It's real. We may have already passed "peak oil." If you don't believe me, look at today's oil prices. When oil runs out, we won't have time to worry what the next excuse for American hegemony is ... we'll be too busy trying to figure out where our next meal is coming from while one third of the world's population slowly dies of starvation.

Sorry. Had to stay on topic somehow.

[gypseymothlee]

We could always get oil from dead chicken leftovers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

[SheepDog]

For the record, the linked article about the draft bill is GROSSLY NEGLIGENT in not mentioning that the bill was introduced during the debates over giving the pres the right to invade IRAQ a year and a half ago. The bill was submitted as a protest to invading iraq. It was ignored at the time (not brought up for discussion) but the republicans recently thought it would be a good idea to bring it up and vote it down as a pre-election statement. Liberal media?

[Claverhouse]

The Draft leaves me cold; my main purpose was re Oil. With reference to which someone on Stumble sent me this page:

Download Book (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/electiondownloads.html)

Life After the Oil Crash can be downloaded free as two PDFs; but this is only until the 2nd of November.



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[songbird36]

Is this site monitored by the FBI?

:-)

[Nighthawk]

Still, let's face it: if America wants to keep it's power, let alone it's ( or anybody else's ) oil, she's gonna need a whole lot more troops. The Second Saddamite War was/is remarkably cheap. Only a 1000 odd killed so far. God knows how many people Russia alone has lost in the Chechen War-thing. If there's not enough volunteers...


Claverhouse :ph34r:

I hear China is going to need a lot more oil in the near future. One billion people getting automobiles and more modern conveniences is going to put a serious crimp on the world oil situation. Since China has never been shy about going after what they want, things could get very "interesting."

[Claverhouse]

I hear China is going to need a lot more oil in the near future. One billion people getting automobiles and more modern conveniences is going to put a serious crimp on the world oil situation. Since China has never been shy about going after what they want, things could get very "interesting."

They're already grabbing all the spare steel in the world. :D And I shouldn't be very surprised if they were preparing to expand their influence in world affairs with the traditional method. In which case by a pleasing irony America would be glad to have Japan assault China once again.

Still, Clinton thought they were sweet and gave them all sorts of nice things.



Claverhouse :ph34r:

[Purple-Silver Fox]

Time for an update: oil is 70$+ per barrel now, the frogs in the Iraqi puddle are slowly being boiled, and there's a Bush in the White House: business as usual.

Who hasn't got a solar panel yet?

[Nadiar]

Heh, almost out of oil. Go look up Shale Oil. Russia, Canada, and the US will be the new OPEC. My friend in the oil bussiness has said that shale oil reaches the 'break even' point once the price of oil surpasses $65/barrel. So while we're already past that point, its running artifically inflated now, and no one is going to take that risk just yet.

[mgb]

Time for an update: oil is 70$+ per barrel now, the frogs in the Iraqi puddle are slowly being boiled, and there's a Bush in the White House: business as usual.

Who hasn't got a solar panel yet?

During the oil crisis in the 70's the oil, adjusted to today's prices, cost $84 a barrel.

I'd say the shit isn't going to hit the fan though. There is a lot more stability now than there was then. Also, more options for economical cars. Even with those options, people are still driving huge SUVs. There has to be a reason for that. Most likely, they aren't feeling the pinch of high energy prices like people did in the 70's, the reason for that? A more robust and diverse economy.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

I've also heard that the break-even point would occur at 30$ or 40$. Apparently not. Anyway what will the production rate be? There are more than 80 million barrels per day needed, now.

[mgb]

I've also heard that the break-even point would occur at 30$ or 40$. Apparently not. Anyway what will the production rate be? There are more than 80 million barrels per day needed, now.

That's probably relatively close. What's more important is exploration of new wells. A great deal of the oil we get now is much harder to retrive than the oil of 30 or 40 years ago. It's deeper and more remote and more expensive to get.

The other problem is refineries. There is definately more money being spent on exploration than building more refineries. So, you get a backlog which drives up oil prices. Not to mention using older technologies that might not be as efficient.

I'd argue that this probably isn't a case of the true demand driving up the price. I mean, it certainly is involved, but there are a lot of other factors. The oil business isn't a mom and pop game, it's a game for huge companies and countries. If they wanted, it probably wouldn't be difficult to deliver more than 80 million barrels a day, but that wouldn't make sense. Less tax dollars and lower profits aren't good for the people running the show.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

AFAIK, refineries aren't being built anymore, and exploration budgets have been dwindling. Apparently nobody counts on large new finds anymore. And since several of the big boys are already pumping with all the technology available..
More expensive oil would be damaging enough, especially since the bill gets passed on and those who can't do that will be stuck with it.

While the deliverers certainly aren't above price manipulation, corporate companies have adjusted their reserves downwards; it hurt their stock price quite a bit. Several OPEC countries are claiming the same reserves for years, while still delivering..

[mgb]

AFAIK, refineries aren't being built anymore, and exploration budgets have been dwindling. Apparently nobody counts on large new finds anymore. And since several of the big boys are already pumping with all the technology available..
More expensive oil would be damaging enough, especially since the bill gets passed on and those who can't do that will be stuck with it.

While the deliverers certainly aren't above price manipulation, corporate companies have adjusted their reserves downwards; it hurt their stock price quite a bit. Several OPEC countries are claiming the same reserves for years, while still delivering..

From what I've seen, there's been quite a bit more exploration. I know they are looking to start some off-shore drilling off the West coast of Africa. Here in Alberta, they've been going nuts. Russia too, and quite a few of the old Russian republics.

And you are right, I think the days of large new finds are gone, which will drive up prices.

The thing about oil is that they'll just find more economical ways of using it. It's also going to be tied into a hot economy. I mean, during the 80's, the price of oil was much lower than the 70's, but they were using it better and the economy was pretty bad. Oil and it's use, kind of comes with a certain amount of opulance.

Then there is China. But they drive up the prices of all commodities. I suppose if they get too crazy, you'll see massive inflation and a corresponding correction, which will drive prices lower again.

[Superstring]

"Demand must be reduced to meet supply."

Ironic, that 'tree-hugging' is very much in conservative interest now.

[Claverhouse]

Outside Wonderland, the price of a gallon to motorists will soon hit £5 a gallon in GB. Call it $7 - $8 USA.


Claverhouse :ph34r:

[zhang_bob]

Outside Wonderland, the price of a gallon to motorists will soon hit ?5 a gallon in GB. Call it $7 - $8 USA.


Claverhouse :ph34r:

http://www.see-search.com/business/fuelandpetrolpriceseurope.htm

[mgb]

Outside Wonderland, the price of a gallon to motorists will soon hit ?5 a gallon in GB. Call it $7 - $8 USA.


Claverhouse :ph34r:

Your prices have always been crazy though. Sucks living on an island.

[Claverhouse]

Nope: it's the taxes.

And for the conservatives, that dear old dingbat Lady Thatcher kept in power by cutting income taxes, a la Ronnie, whilst running VAT ( Value-Added Tax, shoved on all goods ) at 17.5% whilst the rest of Europe kept it around 5%. Her faithful acolytes, Major and Blair have kept it that way whilst adding more and more taxes to pay for their demented schemes.


Claverhouse :ph34r:

[mgb]

Nope: it's the taxes.

And for the conservatives, that dear old dingbat Lady Thatcher kept in power by cutting income taxes, a la Ronnie, whilst running VAT ( Value-Added Tax, shoved on all goods ) at 17.5% whilst the rest of Europe kept it around 5%. Her faithful acolytes, Major and Blair have kept it that way whilst adding more and more taxes to pay for their demented schemes.


Claverhouse :ph34r:

I think I'd snap if I lived in Britian. Well, at least they are taxing to pay for things instead of running up trillion dollar deficits.

[Edmond Zedo]

Y'all underestimate the USA's industrial power and adaptability. We'll all have electric cars on credit in six weeks. Pshaw. And a whole lot of scrap iron for the rest of the "industrialized" world.

[zhang_bob]

Nope: it's the taxes.

And for the conservatives, that dear old dingbat Lady Thatcher kept in power by cutting income taxes, a la Ronnie, whilst running VAT ( Value-Added Tax, shoved on all goods ) at 17.5% whilst the rest of Europe kept it around 5%. Her faithful acolytes, Major and Blair have kept it that way whilst adding more and more taxes to pay for their demented schemes.


Claverhouse :ph34r:
If I had my way I would get rid of VAT complety,VAT is the most regressive tax and horrible tax there is.

[zhang_bob]

I think I'd snap if I lived in Britian. Well, at least they are taxing to pay for things instead of running up trillion dollar deficits.
And we are.

[Superstring]

We'll all have electric cars on credit in six weeks. Pshaw. And a whole lot of scrap iron for the rest of the "industrialized" world.

Fuck yeah. No need to worry about having sweet cars with all the developing and already existing technology; there's also the question, however, of all of the other other things that rely on oil ....industrial machines that are used for constructing/demolishing massive things.....things that are fabricated from oil....

Hopefully they'll be Y2K complacent as well...

[Edmond Zedo]

Fuck yeah. No need to worry about having sweet cars with all the developing and already existing technology; there's also the question, however, of all of the other other things that rely on oil ....industrial machines that are used for constructing/demolishing massive things.....things that are fabricated from oil....

Hopefully they'll be Y2K complacent as well...
I'm not at all worried that oil will just "run out" in that it won't be available for specialized uses. There are alternatives for almost every application.

The website linked above is chocked full of hokum and flim-flam. It says "the production of the average car consumes the energy equivalent of 20 barrels of oil(!!! OMGWTF!). Which could really mean that no oil is used to make a car (Some is, yes). Scare tactics.

[Edmond Zedo]

I think I'd snap if I lived in Britian. Well, at least they are taxing to pay for things instead of running up trillion dollar deficits.
What's wrong with the deficit? The US GNP is about 12 trillion, and most money owed is owed among U.S. entities anyway.

[Nadiar]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

The UK isn't really doing much better... In fact, adjusted per Capita, I believe its worse.

Of course, this is a US source, so I suppose you could say the CIA is lieing.

[zhang_bob]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2079rank.html

The UK isn't really doing much better... In fact, adjusted per Capita, I believe its worse.



That what my point was. The Uk needs to keep borrowing for the economy to grow, it only matters when you can`t pay it back.

[Nadiar]

That what my point was.The Uk needs borrowing for the economy to grow, it only matters when you can`t pay it back.
Yeah, I didn't realize it was that high, but I looked it up after reading your response. Thought I would cite some data for mgbradsh's benefit.

[mgb]

What's wrong with the deficit? The US GNP is about 12 trillion, and most money owed is owed among U.S. entities anyway.

Using the 33% rule, a lot.

[Edmond Zedo]

Using the 33% rule, a lot.
I don't like that rule, whatever it is.

[mgb]

I don't like that rule, whatever it is.

Your debt load shouldn't be higher than 33% of your income. It's a real bitch when the average person is trying to get any sort of loan or credit, but it's probably a good thing to have because you don't want people getting too deep into debt and become unable to pay it back, kind of like where the US is heading...

[Edmond Zedo]

Your debt load shouldn't be higher than 33% of your income. It's a real bitch when the average person is trying to get any sort of loan or credit, but it's probably a good thing to have because you don't want people getting too deep into debt and become unable to pay it back, kind of like where the US is heading...
That would mean few could buy a house. That's an example Prof. Shaffer used. He always gives us an example.:mellow:

[mgb]

That would mean few could buy a house. That's an example Prof. Shaffer used. He always gives us an example.:mellow:

Well, the house would be divided up into monthly payments, not the whole house. Like, if your only debt was a house, and your monthly mortgage payment was $1000 a month, you'd have to take home more than $30,000 a year to qualify for a mortgage.

[Edmond Zedo]

Well, the house would be divided up into monthly payments, not the whole house. Like, if your only debt was a house, and your monthly mortgage payment was $1000 a month, you'd have to take home more than $30,000 a year to qualify for a mortgage.
How does that make it different from the national debt? Do we have to pay it all tomorrow? No.

[ferunandesu]

The world is indeed coming to an end... At least for us.

Maybe Nova has been upping my paranoia, or maybe ice sheets are melting and the earths polarity is alternating.

[mgb]

How does that make it different from the national debt? Do we have to pay it all tomorrow? No.

Well, if the US defaults on a payment, big trouble. And it's a pretty enormous amount of debt.

I guess the point is, the US seems like it's getting over it's head. Getting back to how this started...they are trying to fix the problem by lowering taxes to generate the economy. But they keep lowering taxes and the debt keeps growing. Eventually they are going to have raise taxes to start paying off the debt, or start slashing services and probably the military.

If the price of oil continues to soar, interest rates will have to rise because you'll start seeing inflation as people try and cover the rising cost of goods. That's the type of thing that could put the US in a lot of trouble. It'll be a dangerous game for both the government and the consumers. And it seems to me, using the 33% rule, the US could be in a lot of trouble.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

I'm not at all worried that oil will just "run out" in that it won't be available for specialized uses. There are alternatives for almost every application.

The website linked above is chocked full of hokum and flim-flam. It says "the production of the average car consumes the energy equivalent of 20 barrels of oil(!!! OMGWTF!). Which could really mean that no oil is used to make a car (Some is, yes). Scare tactics.
It's always possible to replace some things at a higher cost in energy/money. But almost everything that can be replaced will have to be replaced, with less and less cheap energy available to manufacture and transport everything. Given the interdependency of the world economy that is based on cheap, fast, oil-based transport, it could be plunged into a severe and lasting recession quite suddenly.

And at that point, debts will be called in. The typical solution is that either the government makes debts to support consumers, or consumers buy state obligations to support the state, but if both parties are in debt, external creditors are needed. Those are hard to find in a state of recession.

[Dom]

No state has an inherent right to survive through conscript troops and, in
the long run, no state ever has. Roman matrons used to say to their sons:
"Come back with your shield, or on it." Later on, this custom declined. So
did Rome.


American can not run the world, certainly she is a superpower, certainly she is technologically advanced but, when we did it, we had guns and they had sticks, Now the whole world had guns, the US may have better ones but still.

Her military is stretched and so far asll she has done is taken Afganistan and Iraq. They were two minor provenices of the British Empire.

The game is different now, no longer can you suppress people with a hand ful of troops. 150,000 in iraq aren't enough, and Iraq is small fry,

No wonder he keeps reminding the world his finger is on the button.

America needs to be contained, her Paranoia about oil, will destory us all, there are alternatives, we need to spend the money on researching them instead of fighting stupid wars, the world hates.

Not to mention the tonnes of oil under the antartic? I know it's protected but heck if the other option is the wholesale invasion of the middle east??? Which is worse?

[Dom]

It's always possible to replace some things at a higher cost in energy/money. But almost everything that can be replaced will have to be replaced, with less and less cheap energy available to manufacture and transport everything. Given the interdependency of the world economy that is based on cheap, fast, oil-based transport, it could be plunged into a severe and lasting recession quite suddenly.

And at that point, debts will be called in. The typical solution is that either the government makes debts to support consumers, or consumers buy state obligations to support the state, but if both parties are in debt, external creditors are needed. Those are hard to find in a state of recession.


However, whoever gets to a technology that makes energy cheap and widely available again will be certain to make a lot of money, and even if they didn't sell the tech their nation would rise to suppremacy.......

The biggest thing is to alter the car, it's about time we moved to electic or hydrogen powercars, standardise the engery used, then it's a matter of energy production (powerplants) rather than oil.

Planes, etc would still need oil I guess, untill we can develop light enough powerplants, or highenough capacity energy stores.

The militaries' dependency is really what the probelm is, the tech exists to convert cars fromg as to elecy, the tech almost exists for fusion reactors, more nuke plants to cover the gap, shut the oil/gas power plants. Micro generation for the home, and someone work out how to beam energy through the atmoshper, the power generated by a solar farm the size of brazil floating in space would be enormous,

Come on there must be was to solve this energy crisis, there really must.

ALso if Iraq was all about oil, then just leaving sadam alone, would have secure the oil output from iraq far better than invading!

[dubbeltop]

Let me see here:

mmmh we still got lots of coal mines
we also got alternative oils currently used in brazil
we can use the forest just like our african friends do
we can use a little more nuclear fuel.
but how about turning down the lights for starters.

America will have to cut back its use of energy and therefore the economic growth shall be significantly lower.

Now then we have the debt problem. Let me remind you of the US port deal with Dubai. I think america will be the 3 world goodie store for a lot of countries who want to buy cheap land and other valuables.

When a firm goes out off business its assets are sold to repay some of the debts countries usually dont go bankrupt since that would be the end of our financial system. Look at IMF bail outs like argentina. So in the end we(the other part of the world) will bail out america. And for the economy freaks amongst us didnt we have lots of crisises before which were all solved ?

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

http://www.blogger.com/email-post.g?blogID=8958500&postID=112168336085498506

Dont worry be Happy

[Purple-Silver Fox]

It's probably technically possible to reorganize society with currently available technology, but I think that we lack the time and the commitment that comes with a sense of urgency. That means, even if we started to concentrate now on preparation of new energy sources, we would still be hit hard by combined inflation and recession. And the average person is either blissfully ignorant or trusts in the invisible hand (or Santa Claus, or the Easter Bunny) to set things straight.

[Dom]

Let me see here:

mmmh we still got lots of coal mines
we also got alternative oils currently used in brazil
we can use the forest just like our african friends do
we can use a little more nuclear fuel.
but how about turning down the lights for starters.

America will have to cut back its use of energy and therefore the economic growth shall be significantly lower.

Now then we have the debt problem. Let me remind you of the US port deal with Dubai. I think america will be the 3 world goodie store for a lot of countries who want to buy cheap land and other valuables.

When a firm goes out off business its assets are sold to repay some of the debts countries usually dont go bankrupt since that would be the end of our financial system. Look at IMF bail outs like argentina. So in the end we(the other part of the world) will bail out america. And for the economy freaks amongst us didnt we have lots of crisises before which were all solved ?

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard

http://www.blogger.com/email-post.g?blogID=8958500&postID=112168336085498506

Dont worry be Happy


All these debts are false, If they can not be repaid then don't repay them. Why should the other nations bail a bankrupt nation out, all it does is perpetuate the capitalist system for a little while logner, what we are looking at here is the potential demise of the capitalist system, development htus far has been dependent on ever more complex way to make or borrow money,

So much of our economyis based upon a pack of cards rather than real value (it's the old gold standard argument) that when it does collaspe it will go puff in a great big bang.

How this will effect sosciety I don't know, it may be neccesary to cut the thrid world free from the trade laws, etc...

Curious Ideas

[Dom]

It's probably technically possible to reorganize society with currently available technology, but I think that we lack the time and the commitment that comes with a sense of urgency. That means, even if we started to concentrate now on preparation of new energy sources, we would still be hit hard by combined inflation and recession. And the average person is either blissfully ignorant or trusts in the invisible hand (or Santa Claus, or the Easter Bunny) to set things straight.

I quite agree, but anything to mitigate it would be good,

Why aren't there tax breaks on buying micro generators? (exemption of VAT and Tax deductable?) or bigger tax breaks (exepmtion from vat, road tax etc) on hybrid cars etc?

You could do that easily, in a budget, and the difference it could make over a few years could be considerable. A small loss of revenue, (so far few of these things are being sold). You could put tax back on them later, certainly the VAT rate should be the 5% domestic fuel one (which it isn't, in fact how coem you pay vat on a microgenerator are they suggesting energy isn't essential??)

Leave open the existing nuke stations that are up to stratch, develop a multinational NGO for desposal of waste into space. Modified ICBM tech could be used, shot the stuff into the sun....

[Purple-Silver Fox]

Yes, there should be a gradually increasing tax on fossil fuels, and its yields should be channeled into the switch to renewable energy. That way oil consumption is reduced and the alternative energy infrastructure will be developed.

I wouldn't put too much hope on nuclear energy, these plants cost a lot of energy to build ... and to maintain and supply, not to mention the waste. And it's a finite resource as well.
As for shooting garbage into space.. :rolleyes:
Let's put it this way: the concept of waste will need to become obsolete.

[Architectonic]

Fuck yeah. No need to worry about having sweet cars with all the developing and already existing technology; there's also the question, however, of all of the other other things that rely on oil ....industrial machines that are used for constructing/demolishing massive things.....things that are fabricated from oil....


But oil will never run out completely. Its simply that sooner or later, the price of oil will no longer be economical for providing energy and we will then use other sources of energy. There will still be plenty of oil available for those specialized uses. Even if it gets so expensive that it becomes economical to make it ourselves.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

Which other sources of energy? 87% of the supply is non-renewable.
The main problem of oil is its use as dense energy source. The use as feedstock will be less problematic, but still: transport will be more expensive, oil-derived products will be more expensive. Without fertilizers, food production is halved.

[Dom]

As for shooting garbage into space.. :rolleyes:
Let's put it this way: the concept of waste will need to become obsolete.


This isn't really pie in the sky, and I haven't heard a single arguement against it that isn't emotive, if fired off so it end up in the sun, then there should be no problems at all.

The only arguement I've heard is that we'd be polluting space?? I mean common, it is a little bigger than earth you know, and it has rather large amounts of radiation in it all ready,

And I agree, moving from fossil to renewable is the long term goal, but until someone figure how to tranmist energy from orbit to the surface without ionising the atmosphere, we are stuck with fossil fules of one sort or the other, renewables in their earth bound form will just not cut it.

The biggest problem is the US and there seeming refusual to do anything to curb the use of fossil fuels at all, take petrol/gas price, Most of us in Europe would say that the US gas price is artifically low, they say ours is only high because of taxes on it.

What we mean is that we seen the need to tax it heavily to try to crub use, but they dont.

I fear we may be doomed, I jsut don't htink have these solutions are really science fiction, the tech exists we just need the motivation to do it.

[Purple-Silver Fox]

The problem with space garbage disposal is:
- it costs gobs of energy
- the resources are lost forever

A yearly increase of 3% on the fossil fuel taxrate should do the trick. We will cut back on consumption and long-distance trade, there is no other option. But we can still choose to a certain extent in which way it will happen. The same goes for the depopulation.

[Superstring]

I'm not at all worried that oil will just "run out" in that it won't be available for specialized uses. There are alternatives for almost every application.

The website linked above is chocked full of hokum and flim-flam. It says "the production of the average car consumes the energy equivalent of 20 barrels of oil(!!! OMGWTF!). Which could really mean that no oil is used to make a car (Some is, yes). Scare tactics.


But oil will never run out completely. Its simply that sooner or later, the price of oil will no longer be economical for providing energy and we will then use other sources of energy....

I'm not worried either, as I tried to indicate with the 'Y2K' reference!